Messages From Myanmar #06
11 November 2015
Photo Update Alert:
“American Center Yangon”
Election Update
Hello there… Rodger French
here.
On Sunday, 08 November
2015, voters in Myanmar went to the polls in the country’s first meaningful
election since 1991 (the results of which, you may recall, were infamously
annulled by the oppressive military regime that has ruled Myanmar since 1962). This
year, 80% of eligible voters showed up to cast their ballots for the
military-backed ruling party (USDP), the opposition party led by Nobel Laureate
Aung San Suu Kyi (NLD), or dozens of smaller parties.
By all accounts, the balloting
proceeded in good order, with caveats, of course. In some areas still blighted
by civil conflict, voting was simply suspended for security reasons. And in
Rakhin State, local government, supported by Buddhist extremists,
systematically disenfranchised tens of thousands of Muslim citizens. But the
election was nonetheless a historic event, one with a momentous and not unpredictable
outcome.
[Constitutional Sidebar - In 2008, the military, in an attempt to
stack the deck, made revisions to the Myanmar constitution detrimental to the
NLD in general and Aung San Suu Kyi (aka “The Lady”) in particular. The Fix, as
they say, was in:
Fix #1.
The Tatmadaw (military) will retain, automatically and without need of bothersome
elections, 25% of all legislative seats.
Fix #2. The ministers of
defense, home affairs, and border affairs are to be drawn from the ranks of the
Tatmadaw, and they will report directly to the commander in chief of the armed
forces.
Fix #3.
Anyone who has a spouse or children who are foreign citizens is
disqualified from holding the office of President. Let’s call this “The Lady”
clause.]
So… since the NLD has apparently won more than 67% of the seats
that are actually up for grabs (and current projections run as high as 80%, a
veritable landslide), according to the law they can form a government and
select a President, though not Aung
San Suu Kyi, since her late husband and her children held/hold British
passports (see Fix #3). She could become President only through a constitutional
amendment.
But… since the constitution also specifies that any amendments
require approval by a legislative majority of 75% (meaning ALL seats not held
by the military), it is not possible for Aung
San Suu Kyi to assume the presidency in 2016. Thus does the Tatmadaw, who are
every bit as clever as they are avaricious, plan to maintain a grip on control.
However… “The Lady” has
repeatedly stated that when the NLD assumes power, she is going to be in charge
and “above the President.” I, for one, do not doubt her. Decades of oppression
by the Tatmadaw have served to make her both sympathetic and one tough cookie.
She is brave, smart, and a canny politician. What’s most important, however, is
the fact that the overwhelming majority of voters believe in her and want her
to be their leader, even if she cannot be actual head of state.
And she is wasting no time,
having already reached out to the USDP and the military to begin talks on
reconciliation. There’s a fascinating and dynamic state of politics in play
here. The new legislature will begin selection of a President on 01 April 2016,
so the next few months are going to be immensely engaging. It is an exciting
time to be an American expat in Yangon.
In case you’re wondering,
Anne and I spent Election Day at the American Center, which hosted an election theme
party for several dozen young people, some of whom had just voted for the first
time. (YES!) It was great fun and everyone seemed in a positive frame of mind, hopeful
that this time real change would result from people exercising their franchise.
This has been a long time coming and, for what it’s worth, I think they’ve got
a shot.
Onward.
Rodger
